Is Connor McDavid declining in 2025? What one Daily Faceoff NHL analyst sees

Father Time still has the upper hand, a quiet pressure that trims bursts of speed and turns what used to feel like effortless work into gritty, grinding work.

Yet Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin continue to fight against that edge, and this year, Connor McDavid steps into the conversation as part of the aging-curve discussion.

As Paul Pidutti, NHL analyst at Daily Faceoff, weeds out the usual markers for early decline, there have to be no major injuries, players have to be between the ages of 28 and 32, have several seasons of dipping statistics, at least one All-Star nod, and a salary above six million.

McDavid checks the age and money boxes, and the statistical track of his decline is where the doubts begin.

At 28, in the final year of his eight-year contract before a two-year extension starts, McDavid's 5-on-5 point rate is the lowest of his career. He's still second in the league in scoring with 44 points and keeps pace on goals, but the breakdown matters.

Eighteen of his points have come on the power play, with several others coming in overtime, with an extra attacker, or into an empty net. That leaves 18 points at 5-on-5, even though he's logged his most even-strength ice time since he was 22.

The rocky start by Edmonton has head coach Kris Knoblauch leaning hard on his captain.

A pair of deep playoff runs in succession, coupled with continuous line shuffling around him, has only elevated the burden. And yet, McDavid retains elite speed: NHL Edge has his top burst at 24.6 mph.

McDavid is not driving 5-on-5 play the way he has since his mid-20s, but his ceiling remains unmatched.

The takeaway is this: Father Time is giving him four months to reassert himself against Nathan MacKinnon and recapture his peak form, according to Pidutti.