MAJOR: here's proof that the Canadiens will soon overtake the Maple Leafs

July 6, 2023  (8:02 PM)

A modeling expert has ranked the youth banks of all NHL teams, and it shows that the Canadiens have one of the most promising futures, while the Maple Leafs have one of the bleakest.

The expert's model

Byron Bader is an expert prospecting analyst who has created a complex system for identifying quality young players and projecting them as players of certain caliber. His work has garnered a lot of attention in the field hockey community, with over 20,000 followers on Twitter and NHL executives paying for access to his comprehensive model.
In a recent post that attracted a lot of attention, he ranked the youth player banks of all NHL teams. Of note, the Montreal Canadiens have the second-best, while the Toronto Maple Leafs have the 20th-best.

The future is bright in Montreal

Bader's model takes into account five different aspects:
- The chances of the top five prospects becoming stars
- Odds of the top five prospects becoming NHL players
- Odds of their depth prospects becoming stars
- Odds of their depth prospects becoming NHL players
- The odds of their goaltending prospects becoming NHL players.
On all five counts, Montreal ranks first in the odds of its top-five prospects becoming NHL players, and second in the odds of its depth prospects becoming NHL players.
Here's what Bader thinks of the Canadiens' bank of young players:
Top 5 skaters: Reinbacher, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Hutson and Barron
An excellent pool with nearly 30 potentially NHL-ready young players. Few teams have such an arsenal of high-quality pieces in their system.
All we need is one or two very promising young players with star/superstar potential (Michkov would have fit the bill!), a solid goaltending prospect, and some good center prospects to make it perfect." - Byron Bader

While he mentions how perfect Matvei Michkov would have been in the Canadiens' system, don't overlook the strength of their bank of young players. He also mentions that they need solid prospects at center, but with Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach and now Alex Newhook, they're doing just fine with young, talented centers.

Toronto's bleak future

Toronto's future, on the other hand, doesn't look too bright. Ranked 20th, their group of young players shows a real lack of power.
Their top prospect, Matthew Knies, is arguably not even in the top five prospects in the Montreal system. What's more, their prospects ranked from 2 to 5 are simply not as strong as the Habs.
One could argue that Montreal had higher picks, but Montreal's bank is deeper than Toronto's and also includes prospects, like Lane Hutson, who have high potential despite not being picked in the first round.
It's also worth mentioning that the Leafs' 2023 first-round pick, Easton Cowan, isn't even in their top five, further proving how bad that pick was.
The young prospects who adhere to Martin St-Louis' system will be rewarded, and soon Montreal fans will be rewarded for these years of heartache.
MAJOR: here's proof that the Canadiens will soon overtake the Maple Leafs

How many years do you think the Canadiens will be better than the Maple Leafs?

This year2311.7 %
2 years7538.3 %
3 years6030.6 %
4 years and more3819.4 %
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